Slowly marching toward the playoffs
Well, judging by the performance of the Dodgers against the Nationals and the Pirates, they are asleep right now and will seemingly stay asleep until the end of the regular season. All that really needs to be sorted out with the Blue Crew is the fourth playoff starter and to end the season in a healthy manner. Will that starter be Chad Billingsley or Jon Garland? I think as of right now, you would get nearly the same effort from both pitchers at this point. As far as a career trajectories go, I think CBillz will outperform Garland in the long run but, right now, with all the troubles Chad has endured in the second half, he lines up even with Garland.
If you are Joe Torre, though, do you go with Billingsley, who will be with the team for at least a couple more seasons but is the riskier play because of his greater relative inexperience or with Garland, who does not possess as much ability but is more of a proven veteran with a World Series ring. I don’t put too much importance on the ring. It is nice but I don’t see Jeff Weaver making the playoff roster and he has a ring he won a year later than Garland’s. The main factor that weighs in Torre’s decision is that Billingsley has been here for a while and will be for the next couple of years while Jon Garland has only put on the Dodger blue for a little over a month.
In my mind with identical projected outcomes from the two pitchers, I would go with Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers will have the luxury of going to some of these back-end starters like Garland and Vicente Padilla if one of the four run into trouble. While it would be nice if the Dodgers matched up better against the pertinent playoff starters of the probable opposing teams, the current Dodger rotation depth still presents some strength.
Fangraphs.com has an article on how Joe Torre is making the Dodgers worse by sitting Orlando Hudson in favor of Rafael Belliard. I don’t have the exact link but it is worth a read. While Belliard has strengthened his case for playing time since the article was released, I still have to agree with the sentiment of the article. While Belliard does provide slightly more power, Orlando Hudson is still a solid hitter and the better defensive player. I don’t place much weight on the lineups Torre is making right now but come October, Hudson is the Dodgers’ second baseman. Fangraphs also rates the Dodger bullpen third in the majors.
It seems like it has taken a long time to get where we are now since the last time I posted but in a week the playoffs will begin and the Dodgers should be facing the Cards or the Phillies. I want the Phillies but we shall see.
Setting the Rotation
When you see Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw skipping starts because of injuries, it is a good thing says Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus. You could look at Ken Gurnick’s article and be alarmed that the Rockies are creeping up on the Dodgers. Only the Giants are below them, though, and they can’t be considered a threat. I admire the Dodgers for taking care of their starters and preparing for the playoffs. They may not have clinched yet and it’s usually not good to count on something that isn’t 100% but it is incredibly likely that the Dodgers will end up in the postseason so I can get behind them resting some of their top starters.
I would like the Dodgers to have the NL’s top record but the top priority should be playoff preparedness. With the Rockies likely being the Wild Card team, the Dodgers wouldn’t get the advantage of playing them even if they have the best record.
This weekend the Dodgers will play the Giants and, despite not facing Tim Lincecum, they will still have some challenges in Cain, Sanchez and Brad Penny. After the weekend, the Dodgers begin their extra-soft schedule against the Pirates. The Rockies may be creeping in but the Dodgers are still going to win the division because they are playing some of the worse teams in baseball. Although, they aren’t always cakewalks. When you look at the Dodgers’ series against the Padres last weekend, the Dodgers weren’t able to stop San Diego’s streak of series wins. Despite being regarded as one of the worst teams in baseball, they are still prone to winning games here and there. I say this in jest but maybe they should try playing some of their young prospects all year long. It just might make them more competitive.
On Furcal and the playoff rotation
Rafael Furcal is still the Dodgers’ primary leadoff hitter and shortstop. No one wants to take his glove away from him but a team doesn’t pay you to have a weighted on-base average of .295. Well, the Dodgers pay $10 mil plus for a lot of bad things but back to Furcal. Clearly, he is not playing to his 162-game mean but at what point do you move him down the line-up. I believe Joe Torre still plugs him in there because he knows he can afford to if it means Rafael turns it around. But will he? He may but did we know how he would do last year when he returned at the last day of season? Evidence is piling up that he may not be your guy at leadoff. I would just tell him that his bat is valuable anywhere in the lineup and that it’s his play at shortstop that is most important in the upcoming playoffs. If there isn’t enough improvement, O-Dog or Belliard may be batting at the top of the lineup.
Now, about the starters. In a short series, The Dodgers will only need to rely on three starters. Since the Dodgers have more than what they can count on one hand, there will be some choices to be made. You can pencil Randy Wolf in. I don’t know if it is at the top but I think he presents the strongest case. What about the rest? Here are my thoughts:
Chad Billingsley- CBillz was the heir apparent for the ace slot in the rotation and he had a great first half but has not been as impressive in the second half. I think he starts in October but I wouldn’t pencil him in for Game 1.
Clayton Kershaw- Kershaw has really stepped up this year. What would stop Torre from starting him is his lack of experience. Last year, he appeared in relief for a couple of games in the NLCS. This year he has the stuff to go up against the best in the NL but Torre could go with other options.
Hiroki Kuroda- Hiroki’s consistency would make him a great choice for a playoff starter but, because of his recent injury, he will have to show that he is back to normal. If he is back, he makes a case to get into the longer series’.
Jon Garland- As a member of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox, he has experienced all three levels of the postseason. While he has declined since his emergence, he may still have it in him. If Kuroda is not ready to go, he may be a fourth option. Otherwise, he gives the Dodgers a good long reliever in the bullpen.
Vicente Padilla- While he has done well since leaving Texas, he would be an emergency starter. I don’t think he matches up well against the aforementioned starters. He may be competing with Jeff Weaver to stay on the playoff roster.
Charlie Haeger- He isn’t in the picture at all but I have to say that I hope he is in camp next year. This guy’s knuckler is good enough to stay in the majors and I think that the Dodgers would have been fine keeping him in the rotation but I am ok with them getting marginally better if it increases their already high odds of making the playoffs. I think he would be a fine #5 starter here or elsewhere if it comes to that.
If the playoffs started today, the Dodgers would play the Phillies and I would start Wolf, Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf, Billingsley.
I end this post by saying that the Dodgers are still fine despite the lack of execution at the plate. The Dodgers’ pitching rotation does not have a true ace but neither did the Rays’ rotation last year. This is the lull before the games that count begin.
Still haven’t lost three in a row
29 -21 (58%): The Dodgers’ record without Manny
21-8 (72%): The Dodgers’ record with Manny
The only team with a better winning percentage for the season than the Dodgers’ Manny-less winning percentage was the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees came close with 57.7%.
Of course the Dodgers are better with Manny. They also were very good without him. I thought they would hang in there but they went above expectations. Manny makes a relatively big difference for the team but he is still one player. Juan Pierre stepped in and did a fine job. I was not enthralled about having to watch him play but he played well enough that I didn’t wince as much. I don’t know if there are many proponents of Pierre out there but I would say that if he was really worth retaining him in the lineup on a regular/somewhat regular basis, he would have trade value.
Yes, the contract weighs him down but that is the point. He is overpaid for what he is. He has no arm and historically does not get on base enough to justify his other lead-off skills like slap hitting and base stealing. He has had a good fifty games and has had good stretches like this before but he is not that good of a player. If I were him, I would still want a trade but I would also find a way to be content with my ten million dollars rolling in every year. Yes, he gets to the ballpark early and is the hardest worker but he was signed to be the leadoff center fielder and he is not either on a championship team. I may have said this before but if he must play everyday he would be better off somewhere else. If he wants to play for a winner, he can pinch hit and pinch run. Also, since I don’t believe in jinxes, it is not unfathomable that he would get a chance to play as the season goes on. Hopefully not in October though.
Six home runs and the Dodgers were still in it
Six home runs! You know you are in an American League ballpark when… I am impressed how this team is in most every game. The Dodger win percentage says they should be but it is still impressive. It definitely shows the depth and strength of the team.
It was a disappointing outing for Wolf and Wade too. They weren’t keeping the ball down and they didn’t have their stuff working. McDonald and Mota did well. It is good to see McDonald back. I don’t think it will be long until he is getting starts again. perhaps keeping a rotation spot for a pitcher acquired from a trade. I think Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee would be welcome.
Matt Kemp’s ninth was a beauty. He took advantage of a bad reliever in Jimmy Gobble (who hit Juan Pierre on purpose by the way) and put them back in it. I am not impressed with Rafael Furcal. He still has that cannon for an arm but his bat is not the one it was in early 2008. He has a track record such that we can assume that he can turn it around. I think he is healthy. Really, all it matters is that he can hit in October. He is not hitting at a level that is detrimental to the Dodgers. Perhaps he is batting second but he will probably turn it around. Until then, I think he can be moved down in the lineup.
Clayton Richard pitches for the Sox tomorrow and he faces CBills. I like the Dodgers’ chances of winning the series.
The Dodgers after 2 & ½ months
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball and they have been
for most of the season. Are they the best? No, I still think that two or three
teams in the AL East are better but the Dodgers are up there. I think that
considering Manny has been out of the lineup, Kuroda was out for two months and
none of their lefty short relievers are healthy, the Dodgers have still
established that they are a force. With the probably that we should see another
starter acquired, maybe a reliever and possibly a pinch-hitter along with the
return of Manny, this team will improve.
Today, it is all about the guys that are doing it right now
though. Orlando Hudson has been solid at bat and in the field. Here is a guy
this will be on base almost every game. I don’t like him hitting third but with
a Manny-less lineup and Juan Pierre on fire, it makes sense. Andre Ethier has
had his minor slump but he is still standing and has been a stalwart presence
for the Dodgers. Casey Blake has had a hot start and is playing like he is
going to have a career year. Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin have not been
doing quite as well but with sixty games in, they can still turn it around.
The pitching staff is not what it was last year from a
personnel perspective but statistically, they are still atop the NL. Chad
Billingsley is pitching like an ace, Randy Wolf is staying healthy and playing
like last year, maybe even better. Clayton Kershaw is still putting things
together – if he could only walk fewer batters. Hiroki Kuroda was consistent
last year and is an experienced pitcher but still hasn’t caught a groove yet
but I think he will shortly. The others are not much to speak of but when the
Dodgers score the runs that they do, they don’t have to be world-beaters.
The bullpen, in aggregate, is more than adequate. Jonathan
Broxton has been a solid closer and the better that slider gets, the better he
will continue to be. Cory Wade has become a long reliever with Ramon Troncoso
and Ronald Belisario taking the short set-up work. Brent Leach is as good as it
gets considering he is surpassing three more accomplished or acclaimed
left-handed yet injured relievers to be the go-to lefty. The rest are not as
great but the “others” that I alluded to in the previous paragraph also happen
to serve well as long relievers.
You can talk a lot about the depth and I think the best
configuration is when Martin is in the DH slot and Brad Ausmus catches. Mark
Loretta deserves a stint at DH too but Ausmus is a good #9 and Martin at his
best is a good DH. Plus, Martin deserves the break. If only the NL had the DH
too.
Well, the Dodgers appear to be doing quite well. There is a
lot of baseball to play but so far it has been a good experience as a Dodger
fan and viewer. It is nice to watch a game and not have to loudly ask why
so-and-so is playing there and why so-and-so is making $18 million and not
hitting. The best thing about seeing some of the former Dodgers now playing
elsewhere is that the best way to show up one of these guys is to win a series
against them. No real hard feelings to them but the Dodgers are better than
your team and have fun with whatever your team is doing right now. It’s a good
time to be a Dodgers fan!
Small sample size
The Dodgers are 3-4 since the Manny suspension. You know what that means? Not much. If I listened to what the litany says about Manny, I would be in more of a panic. I tune into ESPN, the Fox News of sports TV, on Sunday and they got some idiot saying, “Well, they are 1-2 without him.” Even Baseball Prospectus is vaguely getting in on the craziness.
From the article: “The Dodgers have played five games since losing left fielder Manny Ramirez
to a 50-game suspension by Major League Baseball for using
performance-enhancing drugs. The early results for the Dodgers in the
very few games played so far into their Manny interregnum have not been
good. They’ve lost four of the five games, though with the exception of
hitting just two home runs in that span, the Dodgers’ offense hasn’t
suffered that much, putting up a .299/.350/.497 line. Before the
suspension, they were hitting .283/.376/.426.”
So I see read that what I consider the source for statistical analysis in baseball using a five-game sample size and using those ill-gotten statistics, the author deduces that the Manny loss is “not good” despite him saying that the Dodgers are in “good shape” with a better BA and better SLG %. So, what, they miss his defense?
Of course the Dodgers are worse off without Manny. I don’t need some bad statistics and rushed analysis to tell me that even if that isn’t what it is saying. We will look back at the 50 games and the numbers will show that they are better with Manny. There is no need in the meantime for convolution.
In other news, the Dodgers not only won a game at Citizens Bank Park, they won two, which is good for them.
Also, they called Eric Milton up because they want four lefty starters. I guess he is worth a try. The Dodgers need more longevity out of their starters and if Milton can pitch into the seventh, he will have sufficiently supplanted Jeff Weaver, who is probably better suited as a long reliever.
Casey Blake has seven home runs which is a team high total. He was a good reacquisition and one of the best #8 hitters in the game.
Juan Pierre is leading off as of late and, you know what, that is fine. He is obviously hitting well and the Dodgers might as well ride the hot hand. I don’t like him in the lead-off spot but as long as it is working, I can’t complain. I must remember that it is a long season and that when you have guys on the team that are marginal players that make big money, it behooves the team to try and play the guy with the hope that he will produce. With the way he is playing, it will make it easier to trade him in the event some team is interested. I am just thankful that Juan Pierre is the only guy left on the roster that falls into that category.
Did you hear Manny was suspended?
Of course you did. When I heard yesterday, I went through some mixed emotions. Ultimately, I settled on the prevailing belief that he will be back in July and will be able to make plenty of contributions for the Dodgers. I think the worst part of this is that I have to see more of Juan Pierre than I care to see. I hope that Casey Blake plays more left field and Blake DeWitt or Mark Loretta plays some third base. I would also like to see some of Xavier Paul. He’s fast and isn’t a slap-hitter. Oh, also, HE CAN THROW THE BALL! All of these options are better than Juan Pierre, who only offers speed and what good is that when he gets caught stealing and gets picked off. The Dodgers have enough speed as it is. Now, I may be jumping the gun on Pierre’s stealing game with the small sample size thus far but even if he can steal bases consistenly, he doesn’t get on base consistenly and is a liability in the outfield. I don’t think this Manny thing would delay any potential trade that Ned Colletti could make to move Pierre.
As far as the whole moral thing with Manny’s suspension, I don’t think that there should be an uproar about all of this. Manny was wrong but he isn’t a cheater in the greater sense of the word. His physician let him take something that had recently been banned. It was a mistake and he will pay the price ($7.7 million). Aside from all this, I don’t care. Manny has probably cheated before the testing as well as many other players of this generation. A greater discussion and debate of this issue is merited but not now. It is reasonable to suspect that any pre-testing baseball player has cheated in the past. It is also reasonable to assume that many of these players are still trying to gain an edge through not-yet-banned substances and substances that can be masked. I think what is surprising about this is that more high-profile players do not test positive more often.
So, Manny is gone until July. The Dodgers still have Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake. That is still a great lineuo. Manny will be missed but it is a long season and Manny will be there for a lot of it.
Dodger Division Dominance
So far, the Dodgers have shown that the division is theirs to take. There will be many more division games but you have to like what you see thus far. The lineup is very strong, their fielding is superb, the starting rotation is holding together and the bullpen has few holes though it may not being tested ln the early going.
The Dodgers still don’t have a weak link in the lineup and their depth is impeccable at the moment.
Joe Torre is hesitant to let anyone besides Broxton and Belisario touch the ball although he seems to be warming up to Will Ohman lately. Cory Wade is back and Jeff Weaver did well in his first appearance as a Dodger this year. We may be seeing Weaver making a start.
In the rotation, I am alright with James McDonald making a few more starts. Hopefully Kuroda is back in 2-3 weeks and is healthy. The dominance will continue if the rest of the team can stay healthy as well. Obvious statement I know and one that rings true for any team in contention.
Now this is a team
I had to wait until Manny hit a home run before I would right anything after the season started and now I can. No, that’s not really true but it has taken me this long to get something out. I have to say I like the way this team looks. The lineup is strong 1-8 and the bullpen is stronger than what was expected (well, I said it would still be good but what do I know) and the rotation looks good except for Kuroda, who may be out for sometime.
First, about the lineup. Before the season, I would have argued that Orlando Hudson would not be a good fit in the #2 slot. I would be wrong. Contrary to past statistics, he has proven that he still has legs and his bat has been on fire thus far. Plus, with him being a switch hitter, he goes well after Furcal. James Loney is a fine fit at cleanup and i believed that was so last year. Matt Kemp batting 7th makes me smile. To have a lineup this good where Matt Kemp is batting 7th is just what I have wanted for years. God, have I suffered these many years with old garbage batting in many spots of the lineup whenever their broke-***** decided they could limp on to the field.
Billingsley has had three good outings, Kershaw recorded 13 K’s in his latest start, Wolf is pitching well, Stults is a good spot starter and has done his part. James McDonald will get some more chances and should improve on his bad start. As far as all the other retreads we heard about vying for the 5th spot in the rotation or a bullpen start, none of them are here. There was a lot of uproar regarding these players and they are nowhere to be found. Preseason is not something to pay that much attention to. Neither is Jason Schmidt. What a pile of crap.
Ronald Belisario is one of the main reasons why the bullpen can reassure the fans that they will keep up the strength they showed last year. He is yet another young arm that has came down the pipe and will be around for a while. Jonathan Broxton is a legitimate closer so it seems. There really isn’t a pitcher in the pen that I can say that I am nervous about when he comes to the mound. With Cory Wade out, maybe Scott Elbert but even then, he is the best guy to throw into the mix from AAA. That gives the Dodgers three lefties in the pen. Joe who? What Biemel?
Doug Mientkiewicz is kind of a dummy but I will give him the benefit of
the doubt. In the moment, he slid into second head first for some
reason and busted up his shoulder. I wish him a fast and full recovery.
Maybe he will be wiser on the other side of the DL visit.
Having
won a series with Arizona and Colorado, sweeping the Giants and
splitting with the Padres, the Dodgers have started off where they
should have. It took them a while to get that first game where they
broke out and scored a ton of runs and have done it many times since.
The rest of April will not be challenging for the Dodgers and they
should take advantage of it as they head into a somewhat more
challenging May. Really, the division is the only thing that matters
and the Dodgers are in good shape but I will be interested to see how
they match up against the Cubs or some of those NL East teams.
It is really early and I don’t think that I have made any sweeping
jodgments on the state of the team but I believe it is so far, so good.
I think that as long as the rotation keeps making quality starts, the
lineup will put up some runs.
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